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What's the worst that can happen?
An interesting theory about our future
Posted 17 years ago by boyt in category: important
Comments (5)
reelego - 14 years ago [ Reply ]
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pascals wager

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youlooklikea - 14 years ago [ Reply ]
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Nicely simplified. We should have stopped quarelling years ago, because there's so many gray areas associated with environmental science.. its very unpredictable. I guess all I have to say is stop hurting the environment, no one can afford the consequences.

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hayden123 - 14 years ago [ Reply ]
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Perhaps the punnet square idea is just a tad simplistic considering that climate change could be interchangeable with alien invasion or an asteroid destroying the earth and this argument would still hold. The possible (unlikely) consequences of not building a missile defense system for the entire planet far outweigh the necessary cost of building one, however the chances of an alien invasion occurring are slim to none. There is no guarantee that climate change is a real phenomenon as all of the evidence that indicates it could be false but this is more unlikely than a catastrophic alien invasion occurring anyway.

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timeaisis - 14 years ago [ Reply ]
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This argument is completely flawed. What happened to the "Global depression" for "Yes" and "True". I mean sure, crisis averted, but he totally skipped the whole "economic catastrophe" part. We'll spend the same amount of money in either True or false in column A regardless of whether its true or false. That means that column A is 100% economic depression, column B is 50% total earth catastrophe, according to this guy. He's kind of arguing against himself here and arbitrarily making up scenarios for each box that he thinks are the worst possible cases. And yes, this is Pascal's Wager applied to climate change...

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kagejim - 14 years ago [ Reply ]
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Another scenario he leaves out: We do do something, but we do the wrong thing, or we simply don't have the ability to stop what is happening (because we didn't cause it, for example), so we spend tons of money AND have an environmental disaster. Another scenario he misses: Massive climate change does occur, but it is FOR THE BETTER. Historically, the human race has done much better when the Earth is warmer.

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